Boy, economists are a dime a dozen in the blog!
He’s talking about SoCal real estate but I agree with this assessment;
But all in all there are two scenarios. The first is that the rest of the economy keeps chugging ahead and the market is stabilized by job and income growth. Price growth remains at zero. This is the good scenario. The bad is that the rest of the economy also cools, and prices fall. But don’t expect that prices will collapse by, say, 30 percent. Housing markets aren’t that liquid. Declines will be moderate.
I like this quote;
… these are irrationally behaving markets and thus are close to impossible to time. The funny thing is that it might be rational to buy in a bubble market ““ if you think you can get out before the pop. The problem is that people don’t understand that risk. They are told by real estate agents and mortgage brokers that this is a no-lose transaction.
I had a call from a guy in the summer of 2005 who said his agent said if he bought a property it would be worth X% more in Y months. I would never tell a client that although I probably would have sold more during the boom if I had. The point is that some agents did indeed give clients bad advice/guarantees.