February 19, 2024

We May Have Seen an Inflection Point in the Phoenix Real Estate Market Last Week

Inflection Point? We could have seen an inflection point in the market last week. At a time of year when the number of single-family houses for sale is usually flat or falling, the number INCREASED a lot last week. Especially in luxury areas like Paradise Valley… and Scottsdale! An underlying trend is especially strong if it can overpower the seasonal trends. It might just be a one-week fluke but if this counter-seasonality trend continues next week, that means the market will very likely be very different this spring compared to last spring. Investors Still Buying 22% of Phoenix Homes! From Redfin. Phoenix Market Delicately Balanced on a Highwire But it’s tough…

February 4, 2024

Crash in Phoenix Single-Family House Sales

2023 Phoenix single-family house sales are down 40% from 2021 It’s safe to say we’re in a real estate sales recession. Huge downside risk for real estate prices IF the overall U.S. economy also goes into recession. Fortunately, a “soft landing” is looking more and more likely for the overall U.S. economy. Phoenix house prices flat for 2 years Phoenix January median single-family house sold price up 4% from January a year ago but the same as January 2022. This Twitter thread went viral with 60,000+ views AirbnBusted Heard a story about a landlord buying a house & turning it into a short-term rental. A neighbor somehow found out the mortgage was…

January 22, 2024

Phoenix is #2 in Total New Apartment Supply!

“Phoenix is experiencing an unprecedented increase in apartments, with over 17,100 units delivered in the past year. Around 51,000 more units are under construction, bringing the total new apartment supply to more than 67,000 units. This development is concentrated in Buckeye and Goodyear in the West Valley. The rapid increase in supply has outpaced apartment demand, resulting in rent losses and rising concessions across the metro.”– John Burns Research & Consulting Months of Supply (all home types) in Phoenix is the highest since 2016 for this time of year. This should turn down in a week or two. If it doesn’t, it would suggest more supply will hit the market this…

January 14, 2024

Real Phoenix House Prices Only 1% Below 2006 Peak

Real metro Phoenix house prices are only 1% below the peak in 2006, at least according to the latest Case-Shiller data adjusted for inflation. Number of Houses for Sale Could Surpass 2023 Levels by March Prices of Smaller Homes are the Same as 2 Years Ago BUT Prices of Larger Homes are a Lot Higher Phoenix Single-Family HomesMedian Sold Price Change – Dec 2021 – Dec 2023 1,000-2,000 Square Feet Homes = No Change in Median Price 3,000-4,000 Square Feet Homes = Median Price Up 19% (Ignore the end of the line – January 2024 data is only partial right now.) Tweeter Poll What do you think? Click on the graphs…

January 7, 2024

Phoenix House Prices Same as 2 Years Ago

I’m Back! Been busy with family stuff over the holidays. I LOVE doing this newsletter but priorities. Phoenix House Prices Same as 2 Years Ago Metro Phoenix single-family, non-distressed median sold price was $460,000 in December. In December 2021, it was $458,000. All upward price momentum is long gone. The Leading Economic Indicators Say… Watch the Whole Thing! GREAT explainer of where the leading economic indicators are today. Great graphics, too! Will Commercial Real Estate Lead the Way Down This Time? The office vacancy rates in this video shocked me. Could the coming housing market correction/bust be more like the S&L Bust in the late 1980s and early 1990s? That…