Here’s my first post from June 12, 2006.

Catherine Reagor at the Arizona Republic interviewed a housing analyst who was quite negative about home builder stocks.

The media has a strong negative bias about most everything including real estate. The media has predicted 10 out of the last 0 real estate bubbles.

It turns out the housing analyst, Barbara Allen of Avondale Partners, was pretty right on. I wonder what she is saying today about new home builders.

On the Arizona Republic, their tone is less hysterical than last year which is weird really.

Now that we have year-over-year declines of 14% and 15% in Avondale and Goodyear, you would think the newspaper would be all over it.

They now have numbers to partially support the end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it tone they had last summer… but now they are more circumspect. Weird.

I guess stories have their own life cycles. The real estate bubble story was hot last summer but not so much now. It was replaced by the related sub-prime and mortgage fraud stories.

Certainly the amount of personal pain the real estate market is causing homeowners in outlying communities is off the charts compared to last summer. And now the tone of real estate stories is more sympathetic whereas last summer the tone was often gleeful.

It seems the mainstream media relishes forecasting pain but when they actually see the human pain, they lose their stomach for the game.

… or perhaps human pain stories sell better than economic forecasting stories.

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