PRICES LOWER over much of the Valley.

For the first time in the last 10 years, the year-to-year median home price has declined from last year’s $263,000 to $256,900, while it was $264,900 in July 2006. The record to date was June 2006 at $267,000.

I find the median price for the Valley in September ($256,900) is essentially the same prices as in January ($257,000).

The next 3 months look grim for home sellers. December and November are often the 2 slowest months for sales.

Median prices are typically weaker in the Fall. You can get an idea of what a typical Fall dip in prices looks like here (ignore the atypical years 2004 and 2005).

Sales will pick up seasonally in January. But will median homes prices increase?

It seems its written into the genetic code for the Valley median home price to increase in the first part of the year. Just look at the increase in prices in the first part of this year (see previous link and continue to ignore 2004 and 2005).

Worst Case Scenario: You bought a home since the summer of 2005, you have only been making the minimum payments on an option ARM, and you found out last night your spouse wants a divorce and you’ll have to sell.

Best Case Scenario: You bought your home more than 18 months ago, you have a good loan and your spouse adores you.

Best Case Scenario: Your spouse adores you.