My first article in Fortune!

The Fundamental Reason House Prices Will Fall This Fall

“The prices people expect tomorrow influence demand and supply today.”

“The takeaway is that demand will continue to fall for many months–regardless of mortgage rates–because people are slowly lowering their expectations for future house price increases. Housing demand is falling along with the expectations for house price increases in the future.”

Number of Single-Family Houses Hitting the Phoenix MLS
1,000 to 2,000 Square Feet

Number of Single-Family Houses Hitting the Phoenix MLS
5,000+ Square Feet

Quick Tweets

Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version.

Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above).

This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.