The number of houses under contract to buyers in Phoenix was kinda flat last week for the first time in 2 months. The market frenzy MIGHT be peaking.

June sales were similar to last year but the number of houses hitting the market was about 8% less than last year so the Phoenix real estate market is still in a frenzy with buyer demand far outstripping seller supply.

New Listings

In a normal year, the number of new listings hitting the market tends to peak in late March but then falls slowly until June when it levels off.

This year, new listings tanked in late March and early April but have been more or less flat since then.

In July this year, the two lines might cross. The number of single-family houses hitting the market could catch up with last year’s rate.

For Sale

The number of houses for sale last week was almost HALF of last year! Thus, the market frenzy.

Under Contract

The number of houses under contract to buyers STOPPED increasing last week. The frenzy may be peaking.

Solds

The number of houses sold is still trending up and will continue strong through July. Next week, sales will be up a lot because it includes the last business days of the month when sales are always up.

Questions

Supply

  • What happened to the sellers who didn’t sell in the spring due to the pandemic? Are they going to put their houses up for sale in July and August or are they out of the market entirely now?
  • How much of the low supply is due to all the mortgage forbearance? If a lot of it is due to the forbearance and foreclosure moratoriums, will we see a surge in supply when they eventually end? I’m thinking they’ll end in early 2021.

Demand

  • The Fed’s lower interest rates should push demand for many, many months to come, but will the high unemployment rates in industries that were directly hit by the pandemic spread out into other industries slowing the recovery?
  • What happens to demand if we get a second wave of the pandemic?

This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.

To see what’s happening beyond Phoenix, be sure and also subscribe to my other website, RealEstateDecoded.com.

Note. This post was written on June 28, 2020 but the graphs will be continually updated.

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