EXCLUSIVE – Data table created by John Wake, Associate Broker, HomeSmart Real Estate, from ASU data.

None of the 14 cities ASU follows showed a higher median home price in September than compared to the previous September. Eight of the 14 cities showed median price decreases of more than 10%. Last month, only four cities showed a 10% decrease year over year.

The median home price for all of Greater Phoenix declined to $242,000 for October, compared to $250,000 in September, $255,000 in August and $265,000 in July. The median home price in Greater Phoenix, therefore, has fallen $23,000 or 9% from July to October.

A 9% decline in 3 months is… bad.

Most home sellers who weren’t aggressive on pricing have found that they have indeed chased the market down and they chased it down during perhaps the worst 3 months ever. For most home sellers, their homes are worth significantly less now than in June or July. They should have priced it to sell back then. Instead they wanted to “test the market” with a high price or a “comparable” price and ended up following the market down. It cost many sellers tens of thousands of dollars.

If you don’t get ahead of the curve, you will always be behind the curve.

Last year the drop in median home price leveled off after September. Not this year. Apparently the effects of the August sub-prime meltdown carried into September and are reflected in October closings.

In a typical year, prices will increase during the first six months when sales are highest and then prices will lose some ground in the second half of the year. Two steps forward and one step back. In 2007, however, prices didn’t increase during the first half of the year and so are ratcheting down in the second. No steps forward and two steps back.

The median home price in Greater Phoenix in October 2006 was $257,000.


Previous price charts

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