This graph is based on MLS data and is a bit different from the graphs for 14 cities below which are based on ASU data of all home sales.

Price

The median home price (green line) in Greater Phoenix declined $2,500 from October to November which is unusually large for the month. The median price, however, had increased slightly from September to October. I had expected that prices would level off in November which didn’t happen.

Sales

The blue line is the number of listed homes sold by month.

The total number of sales fell seasonally as expected in November as compared to October to 3,318 which is, however, only 62% of November 2006 sales. Sales will likely drift slightly lower until closings pick up in February.

Listings

The inventory of homes listed for sale (red line) in December fell from November. The decline, as you can see in the graph, is later and smaller than in 2006 which suggests that there is still upward pressure on inventory.

Conclusion

My conclusion from last month still holds but I reserve the right to change it after breakfast… after any breakfast.

Right now, it’s likely the market will bide it’s time until the high season begins again next January. My guess right now is the sales in 2008 will be higher than the very low level of sales in 2007. However, given the very high inventory of homes for sale, the median home price will continue to fall. 2008 = Sales up, Prices down.

“MLS Listings” are measured at one point in time, usually the 15th day of the current month. “Median Price” of homes sold and the total number of home “MLS Sales” are for the entire preceding month.