This graph is based on MLS data and is a bit different from the graphs for 14 cities below which are based on ASU data of all home sales.
October was a “slightly” month. Price was up slightly. Sales were up slightly. Listings were up slightly.
The median home price (green line) in Greater Phoenix was flat (actually it increased $100) at $235,000. Often home prices drop in the early Autumn and then level off. That appears to be what is happening.
The blue line is the number of listed homes sold by month.
October had slightly more MLS home sales (31) than in September. Sales will likely drift slightly lower until closings pick up in February.
Last month I wondered if we would get a little rebound in sales in October as the market digested the August sub-prime meltdown. No rebound. September just established a new lower baseline.
The inventory of homes listed for sale (red line) in mid-November increased slightly (66 homes) compared to mid-October. We may see a fall next month if 2007 is like 2006.
One thing that won’t be like 2006 is the timing. Between October and November in 2006, the inventory fell by almost 1,000 units.
Right now, it’s likely the market will bide it’s time until the high season begins again next January. My guess right now is the sales in 2008 will be higher than the very low level of sales in 2007. However, given the very high inventory of homes for sale, the median home price will continue to fall. 2008 = Sales up, Prices down.
“MLS Listings” are measured at one point in time, usually the 15th day of the current month. “Median Price” of homes sold and the total number of home “MLS Sales” are for the entire preceding month.