(See recent posts on Phoenix Case-Shiller Home Price Index.)

The Case-Shiller Housing Index is the most accurate dataset of home prices, however, it is slow. The median home price, which is less accurate, comes out about 6 weeks before the Case-Shiller data.

Phoenix Housing Price Index

The price decline in October came in larger than I expected at 2.3% for metro Phoenix. Several areas saw large price declines, for example San Diego saw a 2.6% price decline in October.

From October 2006 to October 2007, metro Phoenix home prices have fallen 10.6%.

case shiller home price graph for phoenix arizona

… but Phoenix is many markets

The median home price has fallen in most metro Phoenix zip codes but not necessarily all zip codes.

Here is 85086 which includes Anthem. (I don’t have data for Pinal county otherwise we could see some extreme price declines.)

We are looking at maybe a $50 per square foot decline in the median price per square foot from early 2006 to late 2007. That’s killer for home sellers.

For home buyers, notice that at about $150 per square foot, prices are similar to December 2004! This zip code could become very attractively priced in 2008. I’m not just talking about a few homes, there are alway some bargains available. The whole zip code could become generally attractive.


Okay, now let’s look at an “in-town” zip code, 85018, that hasn’t shown any clear price depreciation (although prices seem to be trying to figure out who they are right now). Notice, we are looking at Phoenix and an upscale area. 85018 includes Arcadia.


The hardest hit areas may be the first to see prices level off.

On the other hand, a few areas haven’t really seen a fall in prices at all.