(See recent posts on Phoenix Case-Shiller Home Price Index.)

Case-Shiller released data this week for Phoenix that splits the price index into three price level indices.

This Case-Shiller index is the best data available for estimating actual appreciation (or depreciation). The downside to the Case-Shiller Index, however, is that it runs a little old, the most current data is only through November 2011.

Tier Breakpoints (November 2011)

  • Low Tier – Up to $97,175
  • Middle Tier – $97,175 – $171,063
  • High Tier – $171,063 and up

November Results

  • The low price tier in metro Phoenix increased by 2.6% between October and November and 4.8% between August and November.
  • The middle price tier in metro Phoenix increased by 1.4% between October and November.
  • Phoenix was the only metro area to see an increase in home prices between September and October. (Case-Shiller follows 20 metro areas.)

Notice that compared to the steep increase in the low price tier in 2009 that the current price increase is not based on a government program that will expire.

The current price increases seem to be based on changing economic fundamentals in Phoenix housing supply and demand.

Wall Street Journal on New Case-Shiller data

S&P/Case-Shiller home-price data moved lower in November on both a monthly and annual basis.

The composite 20-city home price index, a key gauge of U.S. home prices, dropped 1.3% from October and fell 3.7% from a year earlier. Nineteen cities posted monthly declines, with just Phoenix showing an increase. Atlanta, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa posted new index level lows.

(emphasis mine)