• March & April – Market tanked
• May & June – Market soared
• July & August – Market didn’t change
• Now what for the next 2 months?
I expect we’ll see fewer sales as the market follows the seasonal trend for this time of year.
I also expect we’ll see more than the typical number of houses hit the market.
But, although the number of houses for sale will increase, the supply will continue to be crazy low and the market mania will continue, just turned down a notch.
The market is a long, long, long way from “normal.”
Covid-19 Mask – Moratoriums Mask Economic Impacts
Last week most foreclosure moratoriums were extended to December 31.
To some degree, the moratoriums are masking the economic impact of Covid on the real estate market so we may get a bit of a shock when the true face of the real estate market is finally revealed.
If you don’t have to pay your mortgage, there’s no hurry to sell the place even if you lost your job. And with prices increasing fast, there’s even less hurry to sell. Might as well wait as long as you can and hope for the best.
Even if the number of foreclosure filings skyrockets in January from the current extremely low levels, it would be many, many months before any foreclosures sales actually hit the market.
Nevertheless, we might see a lot of houses with equity hit the market someday. People with equity but without jobs. With current price trends, most sellers probably wouldn’t even need a short sale.
For Boomers who can’t find another job, many will probably just move up their retirement housing plans.
For U.S. real estate market analysis,
go to Real Estate Decoded.
Since July, running about 10%+ higher than in 2019.
Slightly improving but mainly still crazy low. Last week, the number of houses for sale was down 42% from the same week in 2019.
Still running high.
For August, sales are barely above 2019 despite the mania. It’s low supply, not high sales that are generating the market mania.
Tell me in the “Comments” what you think.
This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.
Note. This post was written on August 30, 2020 but the graphs will be continually updated.
2 Responses to Covid-19 Mask – Moratoriums Mask Economic Impacts of Covid-19 on Housing Market 2020
Thanks for the data Jim. My real estate business is confined to Sun City Festival and our market is very, very strong with low inventory. Today there are 16 resale homes on the market and 23 under contract.
It’s hard to peel out this one community from the entire market data but I suspect Covid will have no impact on our market other than we may see a pent-up demand unleashed.
I read recently that Covid may cause some Boomers to retire earlier than they expected pre-Covid. That would likely increase demand for houses in active adult communities.
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