Catherine Reagor’s article in the Arizona Republic quotes some national analyst saying prices have declined 15% in the outlying areas of Phoenix.

Okay, let’s check it out.

Fire up the MLS. Go to Maricopa. Search for solds between 1500 and 2000 square feet.

For October 2005, the MLS shows a total of 21 resale homes sold with an median price of $263,000. For October 2006, the MLS show a total of 17 resale homes sold with an median price of $209,900.

That’s a $53,100 or 20% price decline in this example. A lot of things are wrong with the example, especially the low sample size, but that is a big decline nevertheless.

Okay, let’s try another outlying area, Buckeye.

For October 2005, the MLS shows a total of 24 resale homes sold (1500 to 2000 square feet) with an median price of $247,000. For October 2006, the MLS show a total of 16 resale homes sold with an median price of $228,950.

That’s a $18,050 or 7% price decline in this example.

Okay, one more, Johnson Ranch.

For October 2005, the MLS shows a total of 18 resale homes sold (1500 to 2000 square feet) with an median price of $256,000. For October 2006, the MLS show a total of 10 resale homes sold with an median price of $213,950.

That’s a $42,050 or 16% price decline in this example. Again this is a quick and dirty analysis and there are a lot of things wrong with it. Nevertheless…

WOW!

What about lately? How have prices changed in the last couple of months? Are they bottoming out? Accelerating the decline? That would be important to know for buyers looking to buy near the bottom in the outlying areas.