This is a well measured analysis of the U.S. real estate market.

Analysts have declared that existing home sales have bottomed and will begin rising next year. Prices are another story.

That sounds about right for Arizona as well.

Ultimately, most markets around the nation will see prices begin to recover once inventory falls to around a six-month level, which is generally considered supply and demand equilibrium, Molony says. Supply now stands at 7.4 months compared with 4.5 months a year ago.

The November Greater Phoenix inventory of single family home was at 9 months. Inventory is usually highest in December.

By the spring, inventory could easily be in the 7 to 9 month range. That’s still a high inventory of Arizona homes for sale but it would be approaching a normal range of inventory of about 5 to 7 months.