Most numbers suggest we are approaching a bottom for the Phoenix area as a whole (although some areas are probably a long way from bottoming out). The one big counter-indicator was the large increase in foreclosure notices in March.
Look at the Case-Shiller Index for Phoenix below.
Home prices in 2009 in Phoenix will absolutely NOT fall like they did in 2008.
I believe we are likely to see this spring a dramatic decline in the rate of decline of home prices in metro Phoenix. My worst case scenario this afternoon is that the cycle bottom would be next January for home prices in metro Phoenix as a whole.
There is no doubt we are already long past the bottom of the cycle for the number of homes sold per month.
Now, we are just waiting for the increased sales to bring down the housing inventory enough that home prices begin to firm up. I believe we will start seeing that in some areas this spring.