• Monthly Graph – Now has June data.
• Weekly Graph – We now show changes from 2019.
Let’s look at the new June stats first and then look at the weekly data.
Phoenix Real Estate
From May to June, the median price of all homes sold in metro Phoenix went up 3% from $295,000 to $305,000.
According to the Cromford Report, the median price of single-family homes sold went up 6%, from $315,000 to $335,000.
What stands out most in the long-term graph below is the red line – the number of single-family houses for sale. It’s hasn’t been this low since 2005, and in 2005 the metro Phoenix population was a lot smaller than today.
Despite all the COVID craziness, the biggest mystery for me is why aren’t more people putting their houses up for sale? If you have any ideas why, please leave a comment at the bottom of this post. Thanks!
For U.S. real estate market analysis,
go to Real Estate Decoded.
The Weekly Data
I think the Frenzy has peaked (or soon will).
New Listings. The number of houses hitting the market for the latest week is alway revised up so I ignore that data point but the general trend since early June is for more houses to hit the market. We’re approaching 2019 levels for the first part of July which is a big change.
For Sale. The number of single-family houses listed for sale is almost half of what it was a year ago. No wonder the market is manic.
Under Contract. The number of single-family houses under contract to buyers is 13% HIGHER than last year.
Solds. The number of houses sold the last 2 weeks was 7% above last year. Given the high number of houses under contract, sales will continue to be higher than last year for at least a few more weeks.
Takeaway
The Phoenix real estate market is still in a frenzy but it’s not getting worse anymore.
Big Questions.
• What happens when the $600/week federal unemployment supplement ends or is reduced?
• What happens when the eviction moratoriums end?
• What happens when the mortgage forbearance programs end?
• What happens if unemployment keeps spreading into other sectors?
Tell me in the “Comments” what you think.
This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.
Note. This post was written on July 19, 2020 but the graphs in this post will be continually updated.
One Response to It’s Official. June was Crazy. Prices Up 3%-6% in 1 Month
No one is selling because why? Just to make some money? Rents through the roof plus people moving to Phoenix. Even with a covid slowdown in 12 months (since impact is delayed) doubt we’ll see a drop in prices probably more likely stagnant. Most houses are bought for a place to live, being an investment is secondary.
Also to the point on prices 2008 was 12 years ago. Factor in inflation of say 5% on building materials. Without factoring in compounded growth that’s 60% on inflation alone ok home prices over that time. Then add in reduced borrowing costs. Then factor in more demand and low inventory. Prices are going up from here.
Lastly, sure there could be a pullback but any pull back would be out of anyone predictive scope. Borrowing costs skyrocketing could cause a pullback. Economic turmoil sure…but I just don’t see it happening. This is not 2008.
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