Whew! I was starting to wonder if I was too optimistic in this post discussing the Arizona Republic‘s pessimistic front page article on Phoenix home prices.
In conclusion, the latest data from the local MLS shows prices are expected to be pretty similar to where they were last year at this time for metro Phoenix as a whole.
The expected short term bottom in September is the result, I think, of the $8,000 tax credit hangover I discussed in that post I linked to in the first paragraph, as well as the end to the August gotta-buy-a-home-before-school-starts rush.
All in all, I’m cool with the direction of home prices. Flat is the new up.
I would say we are more “bouncing along the bottom” than having a “double dip.”
On the Other Hand
Nevertheless, there are certainly clouds on the horizon. In the medium term, I’m worried about the increasing number of foreclosures. In the longer term, I’m worried about the affect of the eventual increase in mortgage interest rates. Heck, there’s all sorts of stuff to worry about.
[Corrected: When I first wrote this post I had the bottom in the median price in the graph as August.]