The general consensus is that mortage rates will increase after the Federal Reserve stops buying mortgage back securities (MBS) as it previously announced it would.

But there’s no consensus on how much interest rates will increase after the Fed stops buying MBS. Estimates in this Calculated Risk article range from 0.35% (= 35 bps) to 0.5% to 1.0%.

Right now, the Fed is planning to stop buying MBS around March. That is, we could very well see mortgage interest rates start to rise at any time as the Fed starts to phase out their purchases of MBS.