No Real House Price Appreciation Over the Last 12 Months in Metro Phoenix!
The real, inflation-adjusted median home price in Phoenix fell 9.0% in 4 months from May to September and was slightly lower in September 2022 than in September 2021.
Market Update
Average Sold Price Per Square Foot Down 3.6% in 1 Month!
Looking at all house types, the median sold price per square foot for the month ending October 15 was down 3.6% compared to the previous month, according to Mike Orr at The Cromford Report.
Looking at the prices of houses currently under contract, however, Mike thinks the sold price per square foot will actually be a little HIGHER next month, up 1.8%. He thinks it’s because 1) luxury house sales start picking up this time of year after the summer doldrums, and 2) the total number of sales is so low that changes to the mix of houses that are selling (more luxury sales) has a bigger impact on the average and median prices than in a normal year.
He thinks, however, the downward trend is likely to resume the following month.
Contract Ratio
Phoenix – 2022 – Single-Family Houses
March 1 – For every house listed for sale in the MLS, 2.8 houses were under contract to buyers.
October 1 – For every house listed for sale in the MLS, 0.4 houses were under contract to buyers.
The current 0.4 number is in the “normal” range.
Months of Supply
In Phoenix in April for single-family houses, we had 0.5 months of supply in the MLS.
Today we have 3.4 months of supply.
3.4 months of supply was common in 2014, 2015 and 2016.
More Sellers are Helping Buyers Pay Buyers’ Closing Costs
In addition to declines in sold prices, the percentage of Phoenix single-family MLS sales that noted that the seller paid or assisted with the buyers’ closing costs increased from 4.5% in June to 19.5% so far in October.
Also, 25% to 30% would be “normal” so we should see it rise to at least that level.
Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version.
Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above).
This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.