Dr. Jay Butler of Realty Studies at Arizona State University came out with his Phoenix area residential real estate sales and median home price numbers for September 2011.

I really disagree with Dr. Butler’s spin that the crash in Trustee Sales (homes sold at foreclosure auctions) in September was somehow bad. I don’t understand his point of view at all.

The number of homes sold at Trustee Sales in Maricopa County fell 45% from 4,110 in September 2010 to 2,295 in September 2011. I don’t see any downside at all to that data point, at least for home owners. For future home buyers, on the other hand, it suggests future price increases.

The crash in the number of homes sold at foreclosure auctions in September is just another data point suggesting Phoenix metro home prices are going to see significant increases when the high season starts in January because Joe Homeseller will see significantly less competition from bank-owned homes than previously.

Greater Phoenix – Median Home Price

(Single-family resale homes. Excludes repossessions but includes sales by banks after they repossess. ASU calls these “Traditional Sales”)

September 2011: $125,000
September 2010: $135,000

According to Dr. Butler’s dataset, the median home price in Maricopa County bottomed out in April 2009 at $125,000 and rose 15% to peak at $144,000 in April and May 2010 before falling again to $125,000 in December 2010, January, March, April and now September 2011. It sure looks like the Phoenix median home price is bouncing along its bottom, $125,000.

I should point out that last August I said “I strongly doubt we’ll ever see $125,000 again” but we did just see $125,000 again for September 2011.

Nevertheless, I still think the median Phoenix home price could quickly pop up to $144,000+ again by June 2012. Stay tuned.

Greater Phoenix – Number of Homes Sold

(Single-family resale homes. Excludes repossessions but includes sales by banks after they repossess. ASU calls these “Traditional Sales”)

September 2011: 5,645
September 2010: 4,895

Conclusion

For most parts of Maricopa County, if you’re thinking of buying a home, I would strongly suggest buying sooner rather than later.

Call me at (480) 463-4475 for details, if you’re looking for a knowledgeable real estate agent, either myself or a colleague, to help you buy that home.