I mentioned in this post how surprised/confused I was that the inventory of homes for sale was 15% LESS this January compared to last January despite the median home price being up 31% in metro Phoenix AZ.

Here’s my current working hypothesis on the outlook for Phoenix housing inventory.

My Working Hypothesis – Phoenix Housing Inventory


Phoenix home prices will increase significantly again this spring (2013).

Intervening Hypothesis #1

By next fall or winter, the conventional wisdom among the general public will be that Phoenix home prices have indeed increased significantly and homeowners will become more willing to list their homes for sale.

Intervening Hypothesis #2

By next fall or winter, some buy-and-hold investors will start to realize that the big price gains are behind them and they will start to sell off some of their homes in order to cash out.

Working Hypothesis

By next fall or winter, the number of new listings and the total inventory of homes listed for sale in metro Phoenix will increase significantly and that will greatly slow real home price gains.