Arizona Real Estate Notebook

December 9, 2024

Long View of Number of Phoenix Homes Sold

Normal, Non-Distressed Single-Family Home Sales (according to Phoenix MLS) Arizona is #2 for Increase in Supply for Sale Phoenix #2 for Housing Inflation 2019-2024 “In sum, we find that inflation evolved unevenly across major U.S. cities, mostly due to large differences in the evolution in the price of shelter.” PV Home Sold for $6,495,000 Quick…

December 2, 2024

Phoenix Supply of Homes for Sale has Peaked for the Year

Peak 2024 Supply Most likely the supply of Phoenix homes for sale this year peaked 2 weeks ago. But it’s still similar to this time of year in 2015 and 2016, “normalish” years. Home Affordability is Terrible The Supply of Building Permits is NOT the Housing Supply Problem Since new permits have been so high…

November 18, 2024

Phoenix Inflation-Adjusted Home Prices the Same as 2 Years Ago

Real Phoenix Home Prices • Higher than in 2005• Same as 2 years ago and 3.5 years ago Normalish The number of homes we have listed for sale in the MLS in Phoenix is “normalish” although we do have more people living here than 10, 20 years ago. Not a ton of downside price risk at…

November 11, 2024

I Got Interviewed by AZFamily TV! Watch It!

I was so nervous I forgot to mention ArizonaRealEstateNotebook.com! :-) Whoops! Supply of Homes for Sale Jumped Last Week! The supply of homes for sale in Phoenix just passed 2015. It should be leveling off or falling this time of year but supply resumed increasing fast. Will it continue increasing fast? Suggests 2025 could be…

November 3, 2024

Scariest Phoenix Real Estate Charts – Happy Halloween!

The Good News Prices aren’t falling. The Phoenix median sold price in October was the same as in February 2022, over 2 and a half years ago = $480,000. The Not So Good News – New home builders are NOT building “missing middle” homes. Not because of zoning but because builders don’t want to. Pinal…

October 27, 2024

Supply of Homes Starts Leveling Off

The number of homes for sale in the Phoenix MLS started leveling off last week. Supply increased fast January-April, leveled off May-July, but then jumped up again August-October. I was worried that if the supply for sale kept increasing fast, we would likely see prices fall next year. The leveling off of supply this time…

October 21, 2024

Next Week Could Tell Us Where the Phoenix Housing Market is Headed

Next week’s data could tell us where the Phoenix market is headed. Will the number of homes for sale in the Phoenix MLS continue increasing fast? OR, will it start leveling off like in 2015 and 2016, and other “normal” years? Huge Market Failure! New home prices in Phoenix were up $125,000 (36%) from 2020…

October 13, 2024

IF supply continues to increase this November…

The number of homes for sale in the Phoenix MLS continues to increase faster than usual. The supply for sale usually flattens out in November. IF supply continues to increase this November, that would be a huge sign the trend will continue into 2025. The Number of New Accepted Contracts is Strong But the Number…

October 8, 2024

Supply of Homes for Sale in Phoenix Still Increasing Fast

But this graphic shows the number is currently kinda “normal” for this time of year. And, this graphic shows the last 20 years to give you a better feel for where this year’s supply fits in history. By the end of the year, however, the Months of Supply of homes for sale in the Phoenix…

September 15, 2024

Map of Phoenix Short-Term Rentals

Airbnb, VRBO, etc. Link to Map How to Increase the Supply of Homes Overnight Link Phoenix Single-Family Homes for Sale 2018 – Present Still increasing despite falling mortgage rates, at least for now. Will Lowering Rental Taxes Lower Rents? Starting on January 1, Arizona landlords will no longer be charged a “sales” tax by Arizona…