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Expectations for Future House Prices Have Been All Over the Place the Last 2 Months

 In January, inflation was slowing and many people felt the Fed would stop increasing interest rates sooner than previously expected. In February, however, the employment numbers were so strong many felt the Fed would have to keep interest rates higher for longer to fight inflation. Last week, however, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank hit and now many think the Fed can’t keep interest rates higher for longer. I wonder what next week will bring. Housing is the most sensitive sector to interest rates, so to a large degree, the change in the value of your house is determined by how the Fed changes interest rates. Twitter+ The real monthly…

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Median Price of Single-Family Houses Sold in Phoenix FELL $40,000 from Feb 2022 to Feb 2023

 After increasing $100,000 from Feb 2021 to Feb 2022 Cool podcast – How houses get built in Arizona. Difference between developers and builders. Twitter+ FULL THREAD. The Fed Mandate is, “maximum employment and price stability.” The Fed clearly does NOT include HOUSE price stability as part of their price stability mandate. Now, the Fed destabilizes house prices with their QE, buying mortgage-backed securities when house prices are increasing which makes prices increase even more, and reducing holdings of MBS when prices are falling which makes prices fall even more. If the Fed mandate included stable house prices, the Fed would do the EXACT opposite. The Fed intentionally destabilizes house prices.…

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Phoenix Prices Moving Sideways

 Low sales matched by a low number of houses hitting the market. Market kinda balanced! Monthly Median Sold Price The median price has been more or less flat since December after falling fast from May to December. We’re in the high season for Phoenix real estate now so, if prices are going to increase, it will be now through June. Despite low numbers of houses being sold, prices aren’t falling because people are putting an unusually low number of houses up for sale, too. So, the number of houses for sale is less than in 2019, pre-Covid. Great analysis of the Phoenix real estate market from Tom Ruff. My latest think…

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Worrisome News About the Phoenix Real Estate Market

 With some good news, too. Monthly Data – Through January Real, inflation-adjusted prices are still above the peak in 2005. The number of NEW LISTINGS rebounded in January. The number of homes hitting the market in December, however, was the lowest for any single month since at least 2001. The number of single-family detached houses SOLD in January was the lowest for any single month since 2008. Thank goodness for the low number of new listings hitting the market, otherwise, prices would be falling faster. Twitter+ This helps explain the boom in 2021 and 2022. But it’s also worrisome. It suggests real rates will continue to increase. Want some more…

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Phoenix Median House Price in January ($444,000) is Down 5% ($23,000) from Last January ($467,000)

 On my other website, Real Estate Decoded, I updated all the Case-Shiller Home Price data AND improved the look of one graph. You can now make any month red which makes it stand out. It’s a LOT easier to see the seasonality. November is the latest data for Case-Shiller and all Novembers are red in the graph below. The next few months will be totally fascinating! But the Real Mortgage Payment Price is still crazy high so I expect prices to be a lot lower a year from now. The Zillow Zestimate on my house is already down $125,000 since May. How about yours? Zestimates are ballpark estimates but still. If…

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Real, Inflation-Adjusted Median Price is Down 15% since May

 Real, inflation-adjusted median price is down 15% since May. I think we could easily see another 15% before prices bottom out which could be 2024 or later. Maybe 25%. OR the government steps in and stops the fall somewhere along the way and we become Canada or Australia with persistent, crazy high house prices and a larger correction next time in 15 or 20 years. Looks Like the Periphery of the Metro Phoenix Real Estate Market is Cooling a Lot Faster I should look into this more thoroughly. I wonder how many of my investor friends and real estate agent friends who work for investors a lot will unsubscribe. If landlords…

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Metro Phoenix Median Home Price DOWN $63,000 in 7 Months

 Tom Ruff’s Review of the 2022 Phoenix Real Estate Market Tom Ruff’s written report is here. Monthly Graphs Updated Metro Phoenix median sold price for homes DOWN $63,000 in 7 months to $412,000, according to local MLS data. Prices down 3% from a year ago but still up 24% from 2 years ago, and up 42% from 3 years ago when the median house price was $290,000. The median inflation-adjusted house price in metro Phoenix is back between March and April of 2021 but is still above the peak of the last bubble. Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version. Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in…

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Metro Phoenix Median House Price Down 15% Since May Peak

 From $525,000 in May to $440,000 in December Sold Prices for the Next Few Weeks are Key for 2023 Phoenix house prices have a very strong tendency to increase from February to June. If we don’t see signs that prices are increasing – as usual – this time of year, that would be a very bad sign for the outlook for Phoenix house prices for the rest of this winter and this coming spring. Correction → Crash? In the stock market, a fall of 10% to 20% is often called a “correction” so with a 15% price fall, Phoenix house prices are definitely in a correction. In the stock market,…

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Phoenix House Prices Lower than a Year Ago!

 We’re going to see this headline a lot in 2023 I Think I See a Trend The median price of single-family houses sold via the Phoenix area MLS was down 3% from a year earlier, according to preliminary data for December 2022. The key question right now for the 2023 Phoenix real estate market is, “Will Phoenix house prices increase like they normally do in February?”. We can get a good feel for what the median sale price will be in February by following the median price of houses that go pending (under-contact) in January. If the median price goes against the typical seasonal trend and does NOT increase in February, that…

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