Arizona Real Estate Notebook

July 23, 2023

Real Phoenix Home Prices Up 11% from 2005 Peak

Real Prices Up 11% from 2005 Phoenix real, inflation-adjusted home prices in June were still 11% higher than at the peak of the previous boom in 2005. All monthly graphs here. Eric says Home Prices Fall AFTER Recessions Begin And he says home prices often don’t bottom out until around 12 months AFTER a recession ends.…

July 9, 2023

Delicate Balance – Number of Houses Hitting the Market is Lower but so is the Number of Houses Going Under Contract to Buyers

Close-up of the Phoenix real estate market. Click on the graphic for a larger version. The number of houses for sale should flatten out like it normally does this time of year. But it’s a delicate balance. If mortgage rates continue higher than expected, demand will probably slow more than supply and then the number…

June 25, 2023

Phoenix is #1 for Home Price Appreciation!

Phoenix House Prices Increased More Than in Any Other U.S. Metro From January 2012 to our price peak, Phoenix house prices increased 261% which was more than in any other U.S. city, according to this report.Phoenix home prices, however, are down 9% since our peak in May 2022. Metro Phoenix MLS had 23% FEWER single-family houses for sale last week…

June 11, 2023

The Number of Houses for Sale Finally Stops Falling

The number of houses sold should fall for the rest of the year which is typical for the 2nd half of the year. The big question is, what happens to the number of houses hitting the market? It’s been extremely low – like the number of houses sold – so the market has been in…

June 4, 2023

Phoenix Median Single-Family House Price UP $9,000 from 1 Month Ago But DOWN $46,000 from 1 Year Ago

I think May will be the peak month for prices this year like it was last year. The number of single-family houses that went under contract to buyers last week was down 18% from 4 weeks earlier, and during the summer we have a lot fewer buyers of expensive, luxury houses. The high season is over. Sales…

May 28, 2023

Median Phoenix Home Price Down 9% from 1 Year Ago Despite Price Increases in Recent Months

Phoenix Real Median Home Price. Up 2% from February. Down 14% from the peak in May 2022. Up 7% from the peak in 2006.

May 7, 2023

Phoenix median single-family house price down $40,000 from a year ago but up $20,000 since February

Will prices peak this year in April or May? Later? Phoenix Becoming Denser… Without Getting Rid of Zoning Mike Orr at The Cromford Report. “Single-family permits are very low while multi-family permits are very high. It seems that the construction industry has collectively determined that the mix of homes in Maricopa and Pinal is going…

April 30, 2023

I Added “New Contracts” to My Weekly Graphs

And it turns out the number of New Contracts accepted 2 weeks ago was HIGHER than the same week last year! Prices Not Rebounding Much for Houses Under 2,500 Square Feet! I don’t really know what’s going on here. A Year and a Half of NEGATIVE Real Mortgage Rates! No wonder prices left orbit. Latest Case-Shiller This is the most important graphic for explaining the low number of sales. The Real Mortgage Payment Price is higher now than at the top of the last bubble in the mid-2000s. This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your…

April 16, 2023

Phoenix Home Prices DOWN 8.5% from 1 Year Ago but UP 17.0% from 2 Years Ago

Phoenix inflation-adjusted sold house prices are still above the 2005-2006 peak. High Season Winding Down The Cromford Report is estimating the average sold price per square foot will increase 0.8% from mid-April to mid-May. That’s a big increase for one month but it’s quite a slowdown in upward momentum from the 2.4% increase from mid-March to mid-April. The increase from mid-February to mid-March was 1.9%. It’s looking to me like sold house prices will peak in May this year just like last year. Chris Joye If you’re looking for a bear case, there’s none “better” than this one from Australian Chris Joye. He says about the surprising bounce in house prices since…

April 2, 2023

Metro Phoenix Median Single-Family Home Price in March Down $41,000 from March 2022 but Up $9,000 from February 2023

My latest on Forbes.com. “U.S. Has 3rd Lowest Percentage Of Households That Own Their Homes Without Mortgages“ Also updated my Case-Shiller graphs. I’m really liking this new graph that looks at price changes over 1 month. Home prices are still crazy high in Phoenix by this metric. On the bright side, my sister texted me these photos over the last few days. They’re along Bush Highway. Wild horses. Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version. Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above). This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the…