“So, I can stop worrying about ‘how far down’ and start focusing all my worrying on #2, ‘how long.'”
A month ago, I was a lot more weirded out about the coronavirus and the Phoenix real estate market than today. It was all unknown territory.
Back then we didn’t know, 1) how bad it would get, or 2) for how long.
Today, we know #1. Things got continuously worse from mid-March but it appears to have bottomed out in mid-April (hopefully). Things aren’t getting worse any more and in important ways they’re rebounding.
So, I can stop worrying about #1, “how far down” and start focusing all my worrying on #2, “how long.”
The Return of “Shadow Inventory?
I keep expecting the number of houses hitting the market to increase but it hasn’t happened yet. I wonder if a lot of those potential sellers who are on the sidelines right now (the shadow inventory?) will all come back into the market at the same time.
Will we eventually see a surge in new listings and the number of houses for sale? Seems likely. I’m trying to figure out if this potential surge will be big or small. Let me know what you think in the comments.
Surprisingly, the number of single-family houses hitting the market is still falling. It’s down 13% from the previous week and down 30% from 4 weeks ago.
The number of houses for sale is slightly LESS than the previous week and down 4% from 4 weeks ago.
The number of for-sale houses going under contract to buyers continues to rebound strongly. The number of houses going under contract last week was up 40% from 4 weeks ago!
I expect the total number of single-family houses under contract to start to increase this week or the week after.
The number of single-family houses sold was down 11% from 4 weeks ago. In the last week of April, we saw the typical boost in closings during the last week of the month.
I expect the number of solds to start to increase this week and to continue to increase for at least a few weeks.
We only have 1.8 months of supply which is still crazy tight.
I can’t see prices falling until we’re above 6 months of supply.
Until new listings start increasing a lot, I can’t see how Phoenix house prices fall.
This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.
To see what’s happening beyond Phoenix, be sure and also subscribe to my other website, RealEstateDecoded.com.
Note. This post was written on May 11, 2020 but the graph will be continually updated.
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