Price (green line)

The median single family home price in metro Phoenix fell to $130,000 in January 2009, according to local MLS data. The median home price hasn’t been that low since February 2001.

At $130,000, the median home price in metro Phoenix has fallen 51% from the peak price of $264,800 in June 2006.

Sales (blue line)

Single family homes sales in metro Phoenix in January were very strong for a January, 4,285 homes.

The number of homes sold in metro Phoenix in January 2009 was 58% higher than in January 2008.

In addition, the fall off in sales between December and January was less than usual which is another bullish sign for home sales this year.

Listings (red line)

The number of single family detached homes listed for sale FELL 1% from mid-January to mid-February.

Except during the boom years, listings usually rise significantly from January to February. To have inventory move against the seasonal trend and fall from January to February this year suggests the correction will continue strongly in 2009.

In fact, we should see another year with a sharp lowering of inventory. We may actually approach the “normal” range of inventory by late summer. (We’d have to argue about what the normal range is, however.)


The market is continuing to correct.

If January 2009 isn’t the bottom for metro Phoenix’s median home price, I think it will be soon. We’ll know in a couple of months.

(“MLS Listings” are measured at one point in time, usually the 15th day of the current month. “Median Price” of homes sold and the total number of home “MLS Sales” are for the entire preceding month.)

Click video below for my comments on the graph