(“MLS Listings” are measured at one point in time, usually the 15th day of the current month. “Median Price” of homes sold and the total number of home “MLS Sales” are for the entire preceding month.)

Price (green line)

After increasing amazingly strongly from $118,000 in April to $135,500 in September, the median price in metro Phoenix for single family detached homes sold via the MLS fell $1,500 in October to $134,000.

The usual weakness in home prices in the autumn finally stopped the train of increasing prices. We’re likely to see declining or sideways prices until February.

Sales (blue line)

Although the number of homes sold often falls from September to October, this year home sales increased in October due to the rush to take advantage of the approaching end of the $8,000 first time homebuyer tax credit. (The program was subsequently extended and expanded.)

Phoenix area home sales in October 2009 were 45% higher than in October 2008.

Listings (red line)

The number of single family detached homes listed for sale on November 15 was 15% less than a year earlier on November 15, 2008.

The inventory of single family homes listed for sale in October was in the normal range with the equivalent of a 4-month supply of homes for sale.

A year ago, in October 2008, we had a 9-month inventory. The inventory peaked at over 17 months in November 2007.

Be aware that the supply situation varies tremendously within metro Phoenix depending on the geographic location and the price range of the homes you’re looking at.


As I forecast last month, the median home price has started to fade and will likely continue to be weak until January but I doubt the median home price will ever hit $118,000 again even with another wave of foreclosures coming next year.

Video Discussion