I can’t believe it’s been since June that I’ve published this graph! I print them off for my own use each month. It’s the best single graph for explaining the Phoenix area real estate market. [Added – Now I know why I haven’t published this graph in a long time, it takes a lot of time to do it.]

(“MLS Listings” are measured on the 15th day of the month. “MLS Sales” and “Median Price” of homes sold are for the entire month.)

Phoenix Real Estate Market Analysis

In November, the median single family home sold price in the Phoenix area MLS was $125,000, down from $135,000 in March, April and June. A year ago in November 2009 the price was also $135,000.

As I expected, prices tapered off as demand went limp with the end of the $8,000 home buyer tax credit in April and the resulting sales ended in June.

Sales (blue line)

For each month since May, the number of single family homes sold in metro Phoenix has been less than the same month in 2009. That’s kinda surprising because the median home price (sold homes) is similar to those in 2009 over the same period. I guess we are just seeing less demand for homes at those prices.

The end of the $8,000 tax credit could be the explanatory variable here as well.

At $125,000, the median Phoenix home price is where it was in March 2000. That doesn’t, however, take into account inflation since 2000. $125,000 in March 2000 dollars is equivalent to $160,000 in November 2010 dollars. That means in real dollars that the median home price in November was 28% less than in March 2000.

Listings (red line)

The upward creep in the inventory of single family homes listed for sale in metro Phoenix – despite the low prices – is a worrisome trend reflecting in large part the slower sales in the second half of the year.

We are back into a bit of an oversupply situation with a 6.5-month supply of homes listed for sale in November. A year earlier in November 2009 we only had a 4.8-month supply of Arizona homes listed for sale. (I consider a 4-month to 6-month supply of Arizona homes a “normal” market.)

Conclusion

The Phoenix area real estate market is drifting lower but a lot of that is likely seasonal, homes sales usually slack off in the fall.

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