(See recent posts on Phoenix Case-Shiller Home Price Index.)
Although Phoenix residential real estate prices are falling less than during the November through April period, home prices are still careening down.
I thought in recent months that prices seemed to start to stabilize but I’m really not seeing any slowdown in the rate of decline since May. The rate of decline slowed from April to May but it hasn’t really slowed again since then.
The July and August shenanigans with Fannie and Freddie and all the recent bank “failures” can only be bad news for home prices in Phoenix. However, it’s hard for me to see how Phoenix home prices could fall any more rapidly than they already are. All the Wall Street troubles will make it harder for Phoenix home prices to strengthen which will likely delay and/or lower the eventual bottom we see in Phoenix home prices.
Metropolitan Phoenix home prices in July 2008 were the lowest since November 2004. If prices keep falling at the June to July rate, by December we will be at March 2004 prices.
Phoenix homes have depreciated 34% from their peak value in June 2006 according to my analysis of the Case-Shiller data.
Let’s say that another way; Phoenix homes were 53% more expensive in June 2006.
From June to July, metro Phoenix, Arizona home prices fell 2.8%, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.
As always, the Case-Shiller index obscures the large differences within metro Phoenix sub-markets. This web site, Arizona Real Estate Notebook, is the best I’ve seen for allowing you to look at real estate trends by zip code and to tease out trends within the metro Phoenix area.
Race to the Bottom
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are calculated monthly using a three-month moving average and published with a two month lag.