(See recent posts on Phoenix Case-Shiller Home Price Index.)
I thought the Phoenix real estate market might be decreasing at a decreasing rate last month but prices fell more from May to June in Phoenix than from April to May so I’ll have to put that expectation on hold.
Nevertheless, looking at the other cities in the graph it looks like the decline is losing a tad bit of momentum.
Mortgage Meltdown Part Deux
My concern is that this June data may just be the calm before the July storm. We saw what the “Mortgage Meltdown” in August 2007 did to prices. Just check out the graph and notice the downward shift in the price declines after August 2007.
In recent months, however, prices seemed to be wanting to start to stabilize. Will the July and August shenanigans with Fannie and Freddie push off stabilization for a while more? Probably.
Phoenix homes have depreciated 33% from their peak value in June 2006 according to my analysis of the Case-Shiller data.
Let’s say that another way; Phoenix homes were 48% more expensive in June 2006.
From May to June, metro Phoenix Arizona home prices fell 2.6%, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. Nevertheless, the declines had been running in the range of 3.4% to 4.3% per month from December 2007 until April 2008 so “only” 2.6% is… terrible, really.
As always, the Case-Shiller index obscures the large differences within metro Phoenix sub-markets. This web site, ArizonaRealEstateNotebook.com, is the best I’ve seen for allowing you to look at real estate trends by zip code and to tease out trends within the metro Phoenix area.