(See recent posts on Phoenix Case-Shiller Home Price Index.)

The Case-Shiller index of home prices is the best measure of home price appreciation when looking at entire metropolitan areas in the United States. It doesn’t measure appreciation in smaller areas such as cities or zip codes, however.

A previous discussion of the pros and cons of different appreciation measures is here.

Case-Shiller came out with data for June 2007 this week. You can see a clear trend in housing price depreciation in Phoenix and our neighbors.


Home prices in metro Phoenix peaked in June of 2006 according to Case-Shiller data. From then until last June, metro Phoenix home prices have depreciated 6.6%. Since September 2006, prices have had an average depreciation of 0.66% per month.

Some news reports said price declines were “worsening,” however, the monthly price declines have been similar throughout the September 2006 to June 2007 period. It’s a fairly straight line decline.

Although the monthly declines aren’t worsening, the total decline from the peak in June 2006 is worsening as the months of decline add up.

This trend means that time is not on the side of home sellers. If you have a home listed for sale, you should price it to sell ASAP.

Keep in mind that we know from other data sources that Phoenix and closer-in cities like Tempe are doing better than average and areas on the fringes have been doing worse than average.