Dr. Jay Butler of Realty Studies at Arizona State University came out with his Phoenix area residential real estate sales and median home price numbers for November 2011.

Greater Phoenix – Median Home Price

(Single-family resale homes. Excludes repossessions but includes sales by banks after they repossess. ASU calls these “Traditional Sales”)

November 2011: $130,000
November 2010: $134,000

The median price is up strongly, $5,000, from October 2011 despite a strong seasonal tendency for the median price to drift lower this time of year.

For the Phoenix median home price to go against the seasonal trend and actually increase $5,000 in November shows demand is unusually strong for this time of year and the median home price for Greater Phoenix is almost certain to increase in 2012. We saw a similar counter-seasonality trend in late 2004.

According to Dr. Butler’s dataset, the median home price in Maricopa County bottomed out in April 2009 at $125,000 and rose 15% to peak at $144,000 in April and May 2010 before falling again to $125,000 in December 2010, January, March, April, September and October 2011. It sure looks like the metro Phoenix median home price was bouncing along its bottom at $125,000.

Last August I wrote “I strongly doubt we’ll ever see $125,000 again” but we did see $125,000 again for September and October 2011. Nevertheless, I still think as I wrote in August that the median Phoenix home price could quickly pop up to $144,000+ again by June 2012. Time will tell. (I’m assuming, of course, that the European sovereign debt crisis doesn’t cascade out of control and cause the U.S. stock market to tank.)

Greater Phoenix – Number of Homes Sold

(Single-family resale homes. Excludes repossessions but includes sales by banks after they repossess. ASU calls these “Traditional Sales”)

November 2011: 5,030
November 2010: 4,750

Phoenix home sales were 6% above last November.

Conclusion

For most parts of Maricopa County, if you’re thinking of buying a home, I would strongly suggest buying sooner rather than later.

Call me at (480) 463-4475 if you’re looking for a knowledgeable real estate agent. I or a colleague would be honored to help you.