Phoenix inflation-adjusted sold house prices are still above the 2005-2006 peak.
High Season Winding Down
The Cromford Report is estimating the average sold price per square foot will increase 0.8% from mid-April to mid-May. That’s a big increase for one month but it’s quite a slowdown in upward momentum from the 2.4% increase from mid-March to mid-April. The increase from mid-February to mid-March was 1.9%.
It’s looking to me like sold house prices will peak in May this year just like last year.
If you’re looking for a bear case, there’s none “better” than this one from Australian Chris Joye.
He says about the surprising bounce in house prices since February, “It looks like a dead cat bounce.”
He’s forecasting interest rates will stay higher for longer than the market expects and that will change everything.
Active Listings Continue to Fall
Active single-family listings in the metro Phoenix MLS are now below the level of 2020 for the same week. That’s bullish for house prices and the median single-family sold price was indeed up in February and March, and very likely will be in April.
“March US corporate bankruptcy filings push Q1 total to highest since 2010”
Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version.
Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above).
This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.