At the current trend, the median single-family sold price in December 2022 will be about the same as in December 2021.
And with inflation running about 8%, that would mean real, inflation-adjusted house prices in Phoenix would be down about 8% over that year.
The Good News. If you currently own a house with a fixed-rate mortgage, that 8% inflation also means your real mortgage payments will be 8% lower every year you have left on your mortgage.
Brilliant, Quick Phoenix Market Analysis from The Cromford Report
“Demand keeps getting weaker, but new supply is also getting lower every week… Sellers outnumber buyers, but not by a wide margin in the majority of areas.”
“Normally when prices start to go down, we get a flood of anxious sellers who want to dispose of their properties before prices get lower still. This is what we saw between April and July, but almost all those sellers have now gone. What is now ailing the market is a lack of motivation, both to buy and sell. In this situation prices are likely to drift lower, but not at a fast pace. In fact with the likelihood of even less supply in November and December, we could possibly see some price stabilization. This would leave us at the end of 2022 at roughly the same pricing level as the end of 2021.” – Mike Orr, The Cromford Report
Listing Failure Rate Highest Since 2011
In March, 8% of the Phoenix single-family MLS listings that were taken off the market were taken off the market because the listings were canceled or expired, and 92% of the MLS listings that were taken off the market were taken off because they sold.
In October, 38% of listings taken off the market hadn’t sold, and 62% were sold.
That 38% listing failure rate was the highest since 2011.
It hasn’t been this hard to sell a house in Phoenix in a decade.
Similar to 2016 in 2 Ways
Looking at all home types, the number of homes listed for sale in the Phoenix MLS is similar to this week in 2016.
Also, the months of supply (single-family, non-distressed) at 3.8 months is the highest since 2016 (not shown).
Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version.
Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above).
This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.