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Median Single-Family House Price Metro Phoenix

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“… annual appreciation is likely to rise sharply over the next 6 months reaching well over 20%.”
– Mike Orr, The Cromford Report, Sep 28, 2020

The trend I saw last week is still there – compared to 2019, new listings hitting the market are running lower than in August.

We seem to have worked our way through the backlog of sellers who put off selling last spring because of COVID-19.

To make the market even tighter, compared to 2019, the number of houses sold has been running higher than in August! So the Phoenix real estate market is running hotter than in August!

I go into more detail in the video above.

Real Monthly Mortgage Payment Price

The graph below is from my national market website, Real Estate Decoded. The graph shows that when you take into account inflation AND interest rates, that Phoenix house prices in July 2020 were lower than during most of the 1990s and 2000s.

Full-size, interactive version of graph.

Looking at Phoenix house prices that way, there seems to be room for prices to increase. The scary quote above from Mike Orr of The Cromford Report might be realistic.

For U.S. real estate market analysis,
go to Real Estate Decoded.

New Listings

Running 6%-9% higher than the same weeks in 2019 but in August new listings hitting the market were running 7%-23% higher.

For Sale

Still a crazy low. I wonder how many houses are sold the first day on the market. That would suggest they were actually sold before they were put into the MLS which just makes the supply situation tighter and the price increases higher.

Under Contract

Somehow, even more houses are under contract. That means the number of houses sold will remain high at least into November.

Part of the problem, however, is we have so many sales in the pipeline that the system is overwhelmed and it’s taking longer to close sales.


The last 3 weeks, the number of single-family homes sold has been running 10%-14% higher than the same weeks in 2019!

Tell me in the “Comments” what you think.

This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.

Note. This post was written on October 4, 2020 but the graphs will be continually updated.

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