When the Fed eventually starts increasing interest rates, the hardest hit sector will be housing. The Fed will just shrug. “That’s too bad but stable house price inflation and stable family wealth growth is not our job.”

Over the last 2 months, single-family detached house sales have been 20% to 30% higher than during the same weeks in 2019.

And this is the slow season.

It’s hard for me to imagine but the Phoenix real estate market could very well get even hotter when the high season starts in January.

The Danger

This is dangerous if interest rates ever increase.

Real estate is the most sensitive sector to interest rates. The Fed is very happy to destabilize the housing sector if it helps the Fed reach its legislated goals. Stable house prices is NOT one of the Fed’s mandated goals so it’s happy to throw house prices and family wealth stability under the bus to meet their mandated goals.

When the Fed eventually starts increasing interest rates (1 year? 2 years? 3 years?), the hardest hit sector will be housing. The Fed will just shrug. “That’s too bad but stable house price inflation and stable family wealth growth is not our job.”

For U.S. real estate market analysis,
go to Real Estate Decoded.

New Listings

Running at least 5% higher than in 2019 since July of this year.

For Sale

The number of houses for sale (relative to 2019) is TIGHTER than when COVID first hit last March and it’s getting even tighter, and we’re in the slowest season of the year! “Houston we have a problem.”

Under Contract

There’s no sign of cooling off.

Solds

Sales the last several weeks are running about 25% higher than in 2019.

This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.

Note. This post was written on December 6, 2020 but the graphs will be continually updated.

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