I’ve been wanting to write a series of posts about why Phoenix real estate prices will start increasing in 2012 and the Phoenix economy will be hot (relatively) in 2013.

I think this guy is on the right wavelength about the end game for Phoenix real estate market.

The Probable Sequence of Events of the Phoenix “End Game”

Using this data we think the following forecast and “end game” is highly probable for Phoenix:

  • The inventory of distressed homes in Phoenix should deplete to normal levels by sometime next year – probably by mid-summer.
  • At that time sales of distressed homes should fall off rapidly leading to an almost immediate 20% rise in the median home price.
  • This sudden price “pop” should not happen everywhere or at the same time. It should occur intermittently, region by region, throughout Maricopa County as distressed inventory is depleted at different times for each region. This price “pop” should begin first with less expensive homes and then move upward.
  • This price rise should drop the number of homes with negative equity, further slowing strategic defaults and unfreezing thousands of marginal equity homeowners. This process – price rise and unfreezing – should become “self-sustaining” and help fuel the recovery and broaden the market.

It all starts with distressed inventory depletion.