September stats, then weekly data.
Phoenix Real Estate
The summer mania is starting to level off but the market is still manic.
There’s only 1.3 months of supply! That’s an insanely tight supply. I think 4 to 6 months is normal.
That 1.3 months supply is where the Phoenix housing supply was in the autumn of 2004 right before houses prices left earth’s orbit.
If any more demand is added to the current manic level of demand, house prices could be pushed past escape velocity in 2021, like they were in 2005.
August –> September Prices. At least house price increases are slowing down. According to the local MLS, from August to September, the median price of all homes sold in metro Phoenix went up 1% from $325,000 to $327,500. And according to the Cromford Report, the median price of single-family homes sold went up 1%, from $345,000 to $350,000.
Autumn. I thought/hoped the Phoenix real estate market would slow down in the autumn but no such luck. The market just stopped getting crazier, it didn’t get any less crazy.
2021. It’s looking like the high season next January-June will be even more nuts. Is that even possible?
Landlords. Landlords are getting hurt by the constantly extended eviction moratoriums but I don’t think landlords have started to sell, at least not yet. I guess with house prices increasing so fast right now, there’s no hurry to sell. Maybe after the eviction moratoriums end, some landlords will fix up some of their rentals and sell them. But maybe they won’t sell if they’d prefer to own real estate versus stocks. They’d certainly prefer to own real estate versus bonds.
Mortgage Rates. Did “Lower for Longer” become “Lower Forever”?
Roving Bands of Loan Officers? What happens when everyone has already refinanced? Will the mortgage industry start hawking crazy mortgages again. Remember “Pick-A-Pay” mortgages?
If you have any ideas why, please leave a comment at the bottom of this post. Thanks!
For U.S. real estate market analysis,
go to Real Estate Decoded.
The Weekly Data
New Listings. Running a little bit higher than last year.
For Sale. It’s been running about HALF of 2019 since June. I can’t believe how stable this is.
Under Contract. It’s getting tigher but a significant part of that is because mortgage and title are completely overwhelmed and it’s taking them longer to do the paperwork.
Solds. Two months ago I thought sales were back to normal, or at least back to 2019 levels. Those were the days! Now Phoenix home sales have been running 10% to 30% above 2019 for 2 months.
Tell me in the “Comments” what you think.
This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.
Note. This post was written on October 25, 2020 but the graphs in this post will be continually updated.
One Response to Phoenix Housing Supply Down to Explosive Levels
Back in 04, didn’t we have a brief time where month’s supply was below 1%? I am wondering if the month’s supply get’s too low if it will throw us into mania. I was also thinking; what if there is a political shift and some new first time home buyer policies were put in place? That would increase prices even more! We’ll see what happens.
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