See the interactive graphs HERE.

It’s hard for me to believe that I haven’t updated the “Phoenix Real Estate Market at a Glance” graph since last summer.

Actually, I’ve been updating the graph each month but not doing a post here about the changes.

I think what’s happening is that I usually have so much I want to say about the graph that I wait until I have more time to cover the topic thoroughly… but I never get enough time to cover the topic thoroughly.

So here I’m not going to cover the topic thoroughly, I’m just going to make a couple of quick points.

Inventory Not Bouncing Back… Yet

I expected that with the big price increases last spring that the supply of homes listed for sale would increase this fall. It hasn’t.

In mid-November 2012, the total supply of single family homes is LESS than it was at this time last year even though prices are significantly higher!

The price increase last spring hasn’t – yet – brought out more supply.

The number of new listings has stopped falling after 6 years of steep declines but the number of new listings hasn’t started to increase yet.

The real estate market has huge lags between cause and effect, 1 to 2 years is not at all unusual. Does that mean that we might not see an increase in supply – despite the higher prices – until 2014!

Median Home Price to Increase Next Spring

I had expected the metro Phoenix median home price to increase next spring by maybe half as much as last spring.

But now since the supply is even tighter than last fall, I think prices could conceivably increase as much as last spring.

That is, I’m thinking this afternoon that the median home price in metro Phoenix could rise from its current $160,000 (October 2012), to $180,000 to $200,000 next year.

$180,000 seems like an easy goal. $200,000 seems unlikely but not crazy.

As always, I have to stress that this doesn’t mean your personal home will increase that much in price. Different zip codes will appreciate differently but I expect all zip codes to appreciate next year. Also be aware that if you plan to sell your current home and buy another, that the metro Phoenix home you want to buy next year will also be appreciating.

November 2012

NOTE: If you stumble upon this post in the future please keep in mind that even though the chart may be up-to-date that the text here was written in November 2012.