Phoenix Real Estate Market at a Glance – Number of Houses for Sale is Back to Normal

By John Wake

Twitter

You can see who got PPP loans forgiven here.

I searched for "real estate" (in quotes) and then my zip code, and found a few agents. Found a friend but she only got $3K. A couple of teams got over $100K!

But 2020 was a terrible year for agents. Oh wait…https://t.co/3eZ5bYFtF6
— John Wake (@JohnWake) August 25, 2022

An agent here in Tempe sold more than $125million in 2020 and took a $99,300 PPP loan that was forgiven. Another in her office took $80k.
— Nick Bastian (@NickBastianAZ) August 26, 2022

4 out of 5 real agents nationally say resale house prices are flat or falling in their markets

"Home values are historically the last indicator to deteriorate during a housing slowdown, and home prices are decreasing now in several regions." pic.twitter.com/NE4Na46cf2
— Eric Finnigan (@EricFinnigan) August 26, 2022

Last Time in Phoenix – Single-Family Houses

Jun 2005
Sales peak at 8,387

Apr 2006
Sales 5,272
Only 36 completed foreclosures in Maricopa County

Jul 2007
Sales 3,436
Median sold price is ~same as Jul 2005!

Mar 2009
Foreclosure+short sales 5,416
Prices down 56% from Jul 2007
— John Wake (@JohnWake) August 27, 2022

U.S. house prices will continue rising, albeit, at a low single-digit pace. At least that's according to these firms: @zillow @FreddieMac @CoreLogicInc @MBAMortgage @FannieMae
— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 24, 2022

U.S. house prices will soon decline on a national basis. At least that's according to these firms: @PantheonMacro (@IanShepherdson)
Zelman & Associates (@Ivy_Zelman)@JBREC (@johnburnsjbrec)@Zondahome (@AliWolfEcon) @MoodysAnalytics (@Markzandi)@CapEconomics @RobertJShiller
— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 24, 2022

If you have any ideas about why the apartment market is slowing faster in Phoenix than in any other metro, leave a comment or email me. I’m trying to figure it out.

What's going on in Phoenix? No other apartment market is decelerating right now at the pace we're seeing in Phoenix — which not long ago consistently ranked among the national leaders in rent growth. But a lot has changed so far in 2022. Here are a few stats: pic.twitter.com/HGl1hwUGVC
— Jay Parsons (@jayparsons) August 11, 2022

Seems reasonable.

#NEW @MoodysAnalytics downgrades its home price outlook.

If no recession: Significantly "overvalued" housing markets to FALL 10% to 15%.

If recession: Significantly "overvalued" markets to FALL 15% to 20%. https://t.co/ipGWBBgin1
— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 24, 2022

New home sales have really slowed down.

Sales of new U.S. single-family homes declined 12.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511,000 in July. June’s pace was revised slightly lower, to 585,000 units from the initially reported 590,000 https://t.co/PiZ2pJOKHO pic.twitter.com/o9HQnycwKX
— St. Louis Fed (@stlouisfed) August 24, 2022

This includes apartments.

This year, we hit an all-time high in the total number of housing units under construction.https://t.co/juz9HHVHSl pic.twitter.com/qvzqKoAMZ8
— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 23, 2022

"This might be almost the worst time you could buy."

I totally respect Christopher Mayer so take his opinion seriously.https://t.co/5SGtrodn3s
— John Wake (@JohnWake) August 22, 2022

Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version.

Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above).

This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.

Published on August 26, 2022