This guy has it right about the future of the Phoenix area real estate market.

In my opinion there are strong indications that the long awaited housing recovery is about to begin in the city that became the poster child for home building excess – Phoenix, Arizona. Things are changing so fast, this new outlook is really only clear to those using the most recent pricing and inventory data from services such as the Cromford Report, which updates information daily, and the latest mortgage statistics from the MBA.

Careful calculations show the once scary “Shadow Inventory” in Phoenix is no longer as large as many thought and what remains can effectively be cleared in about a year. And just as important, short term defaults haven’t increased indicating the pipeline of distressed homes isn’t refilling at the front end from strategic defaults, which could easily have increased after the large price drop last year.

That’s basically the same view as Mike Orr of The Cromford Report, Tom Ruff of The Information Market and myself. This guy did a good job of explaining it.