Before we dive into last week’s data, here’s a more macro view of the Phoenix and U.S. real estate market.
“No change in trends the last 6 weeks. I know this sounds crazy but the Phoenix residential real estate market is hot and getting hotter. The months of supply of homes for sale in metro Phoenix hasn’t been this low since 2004 and 2005.”
The number of houses under contract to buyers has been going up the last 6 weeks which is very unusual for this time of year. It’s actually been higher the last 2 weeks than at this time last year.
It looks like the market is catching up on some sales it missed last March, April and May. Typically, house sales peak in June and fall in July but this year we can see that July sales will be higher than in June. Will sales continue to increase in August?
A lot of mortgage forbearance is scheduled to end at the end of July but I expect it will be extended. If it isn’t extend, however, would we see a flush of houses hitting the market?
High equity homeowners in forbearance. Nationally, 80% of the houses in forbearance have a lot of equity – 20% or more. They’re not going to get foreclosed on even if they can’t make their mortgage payments when their forbearance ends. They can just sell their houses and make a little money.
Even if you lost your job there’s no hurry to sell if you’re in forbearance and don’t have to make mortgage payments. But will a lot of jobless homeowners decide to sell when their mortgage forbearance ends?
Forbearance as a precaution. A lot of people in forbearance are still making their mortgage payments. Almost 20% didn’t missed their May payment.
And how many could have made their mortgage payments but chose not to as a precaution in case things got worse? How many will be financially stronger when forbearance ends because they’ve been saving all that money that would have gone to their mortgage payments for those months?
The number of single-family houses hitting the market has been running less than last year for over 2 months now.
Tell me why. I don’t know. Please, tell me.
Last week we had 40% fewer houses for sale than a year ago.
For the last 2 weeks we’ve had MORE houses under contract to buyers than a year ago!
The number of houses sold is still trending up – up 19% from 4 weeks ago. Usually, solds peak in June, not increase.
No change in trends the last 6 weeks. I know this sounds crazy but the Phoenix residential real estate market is hot and getting hotter.
The months of supply of homes for sale in metro Phoenix hasn’t been this low since 2004 and 2005.
This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.
To see what’s happening beyond Phoenix, be sure and also subscribe to my other website, RealEstateDecoded.com.
Note. This post was written on June 14, 2020 but the graphs will be continually updated.
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