“Unless more people decide to sell or fewer people decide to buy (at these prices), it doesn’t look like Phoenix house prices will fall.”
The Phoenix MLS updated their stats for April so let’s look at those first and then look at the weekly data.
Phoenix Real Estate
House prices have skyrocketed the last 12 months! That surprised me because a year ago it seemed we had reached the top of this real estate cycle. House prices fell in the autumn of 2018. The number of houses for sale was up 9% in April 2019 compared to April 2018.
It was just a head fake. The general economy was super hot, the number of people moving into Arizona was high, and then the Fed started cutting interest rates in early 2019. The Phoenix real estate market turned around and took off again even stronger in the spring of last year.
Comparing this April to last April, the number of houses for sale was down 28% but the number of houses sold was down 26%.
The Phoenix real estate market this year is as balanced as last year before Covid-19, it’s just a lot smaller.
The Weekly Data
No change to recent weekly trends. The Phoenix market is still… well… tight.
New Listings. The number of houses hitting the market last week was similar to recent weeks.
For Sale. You would think the Covid-19 recession would cause house prices to fall but so far no change because the number of houses for sale is NOT increasing. It’s falling! At current house prices, supply and demand are kind of in balance!
Under Contract. The number of houses under contract to buyers continues to slowly increase. That means completed sales will increase slowly in future weeks.
Solds. The number of single family houses sold increased last week (up 6%) but it’s still way below last year at this time (down 32%).
Unless more people decide to sell or fewer people decide to buy (at these prices), it doesn’t look like Phoenix house prices will fall.
This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.
To see what’s happening beyond Phoenix, be sure and also subscribe to my other website, RealEstateDecoded.com.
Note. This post was written on May 24, 2020 but the graphs in this post will be continually updated.
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