Families Crowded Out

Tom Ruff

To answer Tom’s question, “Yes, the surprising number of investor purchases last summer is the main reason the market for single-family houses in metro Phoenix is still so hot. Without those investor purchases, the supply of houses for sale available to live-in buyers would be much higher.”

The Cromford Report

August 2021 versus August 2020 in Maricopa County

  • Sales of homes intended to be primary residences are down 14%
  • Sales of homes intended to be rented are up 97%
  • Sales of homes intended to be secondary residences are up 98%

Although prices leveled off this summer, Mike expects prices to rise again in the fourth quarter. That forecast surprises me. It’s very unusual for prices to rise during the 4th quarter.

My expectation this morning is that prices will be more or less flat through the end of the year.

iBuyers? AND… if the iBuyers lose some interest now that house prices aren’t rising, maybe their purchases will fall and their sales will increase… and the supply of houses for sale will increase… and prices will be flat…

New Wave of Investors? My biggest worry is that the stock market tanks or that inflation takes off and investors shift their money toward real estate. More live-in buyers would get priced out of the market, and more downside risk for all homeowners – and the economy as a whole – during the next recession. And all those investors make house prices become more like stock prices = unstable.

My Graphics

Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version.

This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.