You should take Mike Orr’s opinion very seriously.

Michael Orr, the report’s author and housing expert at ASU’s W.P. Carey School of Business, said in the report. “However, if the current cooling trend that started in July continues for much longer, 2014 could easily see average and median home prices move a little lower than they were at the end of 2013.”

I don’t think the Phoenix median home price will fall in 2014… but you never know.

Takeaway – Demand is down and significantly fewer homes are selling at these prices compared to last year at this time when home prices were significantly lower. Home prices probably won’t be a lot higher next year at this time.