As we enter the high season in Phoenix real estate, the numbers look like we’ll have the hottest Phoenix housing market since 2005 which was the peak of the Great Real Estate Bubble.
This morning I can only think of one scenario where house prices don’t continue to skyrocket through the high season.
1) Mortgage forbearance is NOT extended again. I don’t understand politicians but I expect they will extend forbearance for a few more months beyond the current January 31 deadline.
2) The number of houses that hit the market after forbearance ends is larger than the consensus expects.
Right now I’m thinking the lower interest rates in 2020 will be driving the market for a year or two more unless it’s somehow counteracted by an unexpected increase in supply.
What am I missing? What does 2021 look like? Leave a comment.
For U.S. real estate market analysis,
go to Real Estate Decoded.
The holidays add a lot of noise so it’s hard to compare late December 2020 to late December 2019. It will be a few weeks before we know if the number of single-family houses hitting the market continues to be strong relative to the previous year.
The number of single-family houses for sale last week was 58% LOWER than a year earlier. That’s what’s causing the big price increases and the high number of sales is what’s causing the low number of houses for sale.
There’s no sign of cooling at all and we’re in the holidays!
The number of sales closed last week was 21% higher than a year earlier
This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.
Note. This post was written on December 27, 2020 but the graphs will be continually updated.