This is BAD! The numbers say we’re in a full-blown real estate mania. I hope I’m wrong.

Phoenix Real Estate

More graphics…

Okay, I was wrong. Last summer, I thought the number of homes for sale would increase as it often does during the autumn. It didn’t happen.

Now, the number of single-family detached houses listed for sale in the metro Phoenix MLS is below 10,000 for the first time since 2004 and 2005. And, of course, the population of metro Phoenix is about one-third higher than it was back then.

Interactive version.

Could 2021 be like 2005? Gawd, I hope not!

The biggest reason for the mania is the Fed. The Fed – like in 2004 and 2005 – helped stabilize the U.S. economy by destabilizing the housing market.

The Fed’s mandate is NOT stable house prices. The Fed’s mandate is stable consumer prices and maximum employment so the Fed has been very willing to destabilize house prices if it helps them achieve their legislated mandate.

Roving Bands of Loan Officers? What happens when everyone has already refinanced? In a year from now will some new crazy, risky mortgages appear that will be sold as helping people achieve the American Dream? Remember “Pick-A-Pay” mortgages?

For U.S. real estate market analysis,
go to Real Estate Decoded.

More Phoenix graphics…

The Weekly Data

For Sale. Yikes! Down 55% from the same week last year.

Under Contract. Up 38% from the same week last year.

Solds. Until last week, sales were running 20% to 30% higher than last year. And, FYI, the last week is usually revised up.

Tell me in the “Comments” what you think.

This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.

Note. This post was written on December 21, 2020 but the graphs in this post will be continually updated.

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