Next month’s home price chart (see below) will probably show that the median home price in El Mirage was slightly LESS in July 2006 than in July 2005. Brace yourself for an avalanche of negative publicity. (If you are selling a home in El Mirage, price it to sell right now.)

I sure hope the media doesn’t unintentionally stigmatize El Mirage real estate when they use it as the poster child for their real estate bubble stories. El Mirage may be the first city but it soon will have company.

The data that comes out in September will likely show a few additional cities where the median home price was less in August 2006 than in August 2005. Look at the graphs below for the likely candidates.

Given that the market will likely soften seasonally through December, be prepared for a steady diet of gloom from the media.

The good news on prices in Tempe, Phoenix and Scottsdale in the first half of the year will likely not be mentioned.

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