This graph is based on MLS data and is a bit different from the graphs for 14 cities below which are based on ASU data of all home sales.


The median home price (green line) in Greater Phoenix dropped $10,100 in September to $234,900. Since June, the median home price for Greater Phoenix has fallen $20,100 or 8%. In past years the median price has often leveled off after falling in September. We’ll see.

This was my advice last month.

If you have a home up for sale, I would strongly suggest dropping the price very aggressively until it sells. Get it sold ASAP. We’re not likely to see much good news for home sellers in the next 6 months.



The blue line is the number of listed homes sold by month.

September had fewer sales than any other month on the graph going all the way back to early 2000. I think the August “sub-prime meltdown” was responsible for the extremely low number of closings in September.

It will be interesting to see if we get any rebound in sales in October now that the market is starting to digest the August sub-prime news, or if the hit in September just established a new lower baseline.


The inventory of homes listed for sale (red line) continued to increase at a good clip because sales were so low in September. Last year inventory declined rapidly starting in October but it hasn’t happened yet this year. If the inventory continues to increase in November, that would be (even more) bearish for home prices.

“MLS Listings” are measured at one point in time, usually the 15th day of the current month. “Median Price” of homes sold and the total number of home “MLS Sales” are for the entire preceding month.