This guy does a good, quick and dirty explanation of the downside risks to the U.S. residential real estate market.

  1. We survived the first wave of foreclosures, but
  2. There is another wave of foreclosures coming, as well as
  3. Higher interest rates.

For metro Phoenix, I feel pretty confident that SOME zip codes have already bottomed out because the number of homes sold has been extremely high in recent months. Those sub-markets with their extremely low prices and high sales would likely be able to absorb the second wave of foreclosures without lowering prices any further.